What to do before Traditional Wheat, Rice, Maize-Growing Regions Lose the Tradition
Last week, a study emerged, that around seventy percent of areas fit for the cultivation of grapes will soon become unsuitable for the activity, including ninety percent of wine's best traditional regions in Spain, Italy, Greece, and southern California.
Two years ago, a study emerged in a journal, that around 48 percent of areas best for the cultivation of rainfed durum wheat will become unsuitable for the business by the end of the century, 19 percent by mid-century, with parts of Russia, central and western Europe, and northern America to be affected.
Also two years ago, another study made similar predictions, that around 37.7 percent of regions suitable for the growing of maize may experience a 6.8 percent decrease in yields relative to 1986-2005, including regions located in the low and middle latitudes of South America and Asia, and the middle latitudes of Africa and North America.
Other regions apart from grape, wheat, and maize-growing areas will be affected by the trend, as the planet undergoes transformations over food production, with 15 to 40 percent of rice-growing regions facing the risk of having reduced production, large areas of bananas, beans, and maize-growing areas in the North Africa region confronted with the same challenge, as well as areas for the cultivation of staple crops such as millet, sorghum, and yam.
Wine-growing regions may take a hit, because rising temperatures reduce the yields and quality of grapes, apart from bringing grape harvests earlier into the year by about two to three weeks on average worldwide in the last 40 years.
Rainfed durum wheat may not escape this trend, because warming temperatures impact negatively on it, with experts estimating that this will mean a reduction of its share of the current global arable growing area of 13 percent.
Maize-growing regions may face the challenge too, because rising heat affects the crop, which may decrease 10.8 percent worldwide relative to 1986-2005 under global warming of two degrees Celsius, though it may increase a little under global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
In essence, climate change variables such as global warming and rainfall may make food producing regions unsuitable for the cultivation of grape, maize, durum wheat and other crops, causing discomfort in the life of people, especially the vulnerable millions in the global south.
For instance, if global warming exceeds two degrees Celsius, about 90 percent of all traditional wine-growing areas may be unable to grow high-quality wine by the end of the century, with the United States facing the possibility of losing up to 81 percent of its premium wine grape acreage.
According to a study, if global warming rises above two degrees Celsius, maize-growing areas may face obstacles, because the crop - like grape - depreciates under heat, and the rising temperatures at two degrees Celsius may lead to yields of -10.8 percent, the market price increasing by 3.4 percent, a condition to be compounded by the quickly rising world population.
Wheat faces a yield reduction of 3.5 percent to 12.9 percent from 2037 to 2065, as well as a 14.6 percent to 17.2 percent decline by the end of the end of the century, if climate change persists, causing nations to suffer billions of dollars in wheat losses.
Apart from durum wheat, grape, and maize, other food crops may show similar patterns in the event of the climate change crisis continuing, meaning regions growing them will become unsuitable for the products, leading to grave social, economic, political, and other problems.
The changing climate will not lead to the end of grape cultivation, but radical adaptation measures should emerge, so that as the warmer climate conditions get chased out of high-growth grape producing regions, growers can benefit from the new grape-producing conditions, since formerly cooler areas will become suitable.
The changing climatic conditions will not lead to the termination of maize cultivation also, because if farmers adopt strategies such as changing crop varieties or crop species, changing sowing density and modifying the schedule of cropping operations, they might cope with the new realities.
The changing conditions will not mean the end of wheat cultivation, because if farmers carry out measures like changing planting date and using different wheat varieties, they can survive the situation.
The studies about wheat, maize,and grape cultivation may indicate a similar condition for other food crops within a climate that must change, but growers can survive through adopting adaptation strategies.
What to Eat
Vegan food from Greece, Credit, Souvlaki for the Soul
I think the way grains are grown is going to change more in the next 50 years than it has changed in the last 5000 years. It's wild to think about how differently we will need to do things, and SOON.
There's also the fact that even as food systems are changing through changes in climate envelopes, salinity or flooding, large numbers of people around the world are becoming increasingly intolerant of wheat, maize and even rice... in my family it's now becoming a majority intolerance. Sigh, even popcorn which I used to love, and rarely, I ate tonight. It is a challenge to try a mostly-vegan keto diet but I still experiment - with occasional eggs and fish thrown in if needed. We do seem to be heading into a perfect food-systems storm. Thanks as always for your posts, Adetokunbo.