Rising Tides, Rising Temperatures: A Future Uncertain

Total carbon dioxide emissions for 2024 are expected to hit forty one billion, six hundred million tonnes, up from forty billion, six hundred million tonnes for the year before, with global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growing by fifty-one percent from 1990 to 2021.

Total primary energy consumption worldwide relies on the use of fossil fuels, which account for 81.5 percent of energy consumption, while total fuel energy consumption worldwide stands at roughly 140,000 terawatt-hours in 2023, with oil comprising nearly 39 percent, coal (28 percent), and natural gas (23 percent) of fuel energy.

Total fossil fuel subsidies for 2023 was about $1.1 trillion, a third less than the year before, but still higher than historical averages, with 2022 figures equal to around 1.5 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) or the entire GDP of nations such as Russia and Australia.

With carbon dioxide emissions expected to rise, primary energy consumption worldwide continuing to rely on the use of fossil fuels, and subsidies not showing a drastic reduction, fears abound that the world might not achieve a climate change target of two degrees Celsius.

If conditions remain as they are, global energy related to carbon dioxide emissions could show a 34 percent rise compared with 2020 by 2050, fuelled by growing populations, rising incomes, and fossil fuel dependency.

If nations continue to carry out policies as they do today, fossil fuel production could show a 110 percent increase by 2030 that would not be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and 69 percent more than would be consistent with two degrees Celsius.

If situations continue as they are, fossil fuels could keep dominating the energy mix, with oil, gas, and coal accounting for about 77 percent of global energy by 2040, driven by population growth, urbanization, and economic development.

In such a scenario, the world is likely to breach the two degrees Celsius warming threshold, despite international agreements, pledges, and campaigns.

According to scientists, the number of wildfires could increase significantly by 2030, showing a 14 percent rise and a 30 percent rise by 2050, with the Mediterranean, the western United States, and parts of Australia bearing the brunt of the problems.

The sea level rise on a global level could hit 0.3 meters by 2050, and this could be dangerous, seen within the context of rising seas swallowing such landmarks as the Hong Kong Disneyland, the Tower of London, Palm Jumeirah and Palm Jebel Ali of Dubai, 9/11 memorial, St. Mark's Square in Venice, the Sydney Opera House in Australia and others.

The area of global land to be affected by drought could increase at two degrees Celsius compared to 1.5 degrees Celsius, which accounts for forecasts that 700 million people could face displacement through drought by 2030, one in four children live in places affected by drought by 2040, and 75 percent of the world population affected by drought in 2050.

Under these circumstances, it is difficult to understand that after lots of international pledges, agreements, discussions, and speeches, the Earth's temperature records continue to tumble in the last 60 years, with billions of people unable to halt the slide.

As a way forwards, governments, businesses, civil society, and individuals must work together to develop and implement global climate policies, implement effective national policies, increase public awareness and engagement, and support climate research and development, or we all could be in for some tough times in near and long term.

What to Eat

Vegan food from Vanuatu, Credit, I Spy Plum Pie