Here a Bad News, There a Bad News: More Bad News in 2050 without Cut Back in Oil Intakes

From a recent report, Exxon Mobil expects oil and natural gas to contribute more than fifty percent of the planet's energy mix by 2050, hitting above one hundred million barrels per day, roughly in line with oil demand last year at 102.2 million barrels per day.

From another report, Chevron expects oil and gas in 2050 to constitute a major  part of the planet’s energy mix, even though it forecasts lower carbon intensity at 335 million tonnes.

Yet from another report, BP forecasts oil and natural gas to be higher in 2050 than it previously thought, the company raising its demand estimates to 76.8 million barrels per day under the current trajectory scenario, from 75 million barrels per day.

In sum, under the current trajectory, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and BP see fossil fuels as remaining an important part of the energy mix by the year 2050, while Shell believes that underlying global demand for energy by 2050 could triple from its 2000 levels, as emerging economies continue along their historical pattern of movement.

Annual jet fuel demand could reach 500 metric tonnes by 2050, with the consumption growing at a faster rate than any other liquid transportation through the period, while global commercial jet fuel use could more than double from 13 quadrillion British thermal Units (quads) in 2018 to 29 quads in 2050.

The annual demand for plastic and petrochemical products could capture more than 50 percent of crude demand by 2050, with their demand set to double by 2050 under a business as usual scenario, with oil companies seeing the sector as the biggest moneymakers.

The global market for refined oil products such as pesticides could reach $184.2 billion by 2033, growing at a 5.5 percent annually, due to rising population figures and food demand, with farmers forced to grow more food on less land, while they fight to protect crops from pests, diseases, and weeds.

Under this scenario, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and BP are correct in seeing fossil fuel as constituting a major part of the energy mix by the year 2050, since the demand for plastics and other petroleum products would remain high.

Scientists project that the global mean sea level could rise by almost one foot above 2000 levels by 2050, three feet by 2100, possibly 6.6 feet, if business continues to be carried out as usual by nations.

According to the United Nations  Children Fund (UNICEF), the global figure for children at the risk of heatwave frequency could reach about 2.02 billion by 2050, from 559 million presently exposed to the problem, regardless of whether the planet achieves a low greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) projects hundreds of highly populated coastal cities to be exposed to increased flood by 2050, with coastal flooding to emerge five times over this century, putting 70 million people into expanding floodplains.

So while Exxon, Chevron, and BP are right in seeing fossil fuel as making up a significant part of energy mix by the year 2050, the scenario can only mean calamities through rising sea levels, flood risks, and devastating heat waves, since the continued use of fossil fuel as an energy source accelerates climate change, which in turn will bring the calamities.

The solution comes from what experts say in the past few decades, a cut back in the consumption of fossil fuel, or bad news on the climate front increases, to the detriment of the human race.

What to Eat

Vegan food from Bolivia, Credit, Happy Cow