Beyond carbon emissions. Beyond fertilizers: Here's How Rising Food Prices will fuel Climate Change

Recently, experts say the price of banana will rise, which partly explains why the banana market size estimates reach US$146.56 billion by 2029, from US $140 billion this year, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.8 percent during the forecast period (2024-2029).

But the price of banana isn't the only food price slated to rise, as the price of rice could also rise, as it did since June last year, soaring by up to 20 percent, causing a serious hardship in African and Asian countries, as well as other places dependent on rice as a staple food.

The same scenario faces the price of wheat, because experts expect it to rise by 6.83 to 19.53 percent between 2030 and 2050, amidst a situation where yield could decline by 5.79 percent in twenty-seven years' time.

In short, agricultural experts project that food prices generally - not just rice, wheat, and banana - could rise between 0.6 to 3.2 percentage points by 2060, with inflation expected to increase food prices in the United States by 0.4 to 2.6 percent in just over a decade.

Global banana yields could diminish or disappear in the coming years through climate change factors, reducing production to 0.59 T. ha^-1 and 0.19 T.ha-1 by 2050, a scenario to be characterized by drastic decreases in production amongst the largest exporters and traders.

Global wheat yield could face the same situation, with climate change expected to  cut down production of the food by 19.3 percent in 2050 and 40 percent in 2080, just as population growth drives large increases in the demand for the food crop.

Rice faces the same challenge of declining production, because rice yield rose by an annual average of only one percent over the past decade, down from around 1.3 percent in the decade before, and with climate change factors prominent in the coming years, the trend of decreasing production could continue.

With rice, wheat, and banana all showing signs of possible declining production, and the same trend taking place in many other food crops, all within the context of population increases in the near future, prices of food must rise.

In Latin America, the cultivation of bananas serves as the source of jobs and income for more than 800,000 families, so with rises in food prices, farmers may be incenticized to intensify the use of fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation methods, which can contribute to further greenhouse gas emissions and environmental degradation.

In Asia, rice serves as the source of food for a sizeable number of people, so with a rise in food prices, farmers could be encouraged into agricultural expansion into natural habitats such as forests, leading to more deforestation, the release of carbon stored in trees, and the reduction of the capacity of ecosystems to sequester carbon dioxide, thereby accelerating climate change.

In Asia, wheat plays a prominent role in the life of billions of people, but through climate change, things could be terrible, because increased food prices may lead to longer transportation distances, as producers seek cheaper alternatives, leading to higher carbon emissions from transportation if food gets shipped over longer distances, with emissions already high at 3.0 gigatonnes of CO₂ to the atmosphere in 2017.

In other words, a climate change-fueled rise in food prices for banana, rice, and wheat - as well as many others - could in the near future result in a further damage to the environment through the increased usage of fertilizers, an expansion into natural habitats such as forests, and longer transportation distances.

The adoption of climate smart agricultural methods can assist to decrease the impact of climate change on food prices, as well as cut down on the impact of agriculture on climate change, as well as reduce global emissions from crops and livestock production, which grew by 14 percent between 2001 and 2021.

The adoption of vulnerability-reducing initiatives could reduce the impact of climate change on rising food prices, through the diversification of sources of income and livelihood through learning new skills.

The adoption of measures such as early warning systems for extreme weather events could help, because an effective early warning can save many lives and reduce damage by 30 percent if activated 24 hours before the event.

Through early warning systems, vulnerability-reducing initiatives, and climate smart agricultural practices, millions of people may be able to cope with the rising food prices from climate change factors.

---

What to Eat

Vegan food from Maldives, Credit, Vegan Food Quest